Windsor Essex Home Sales Fell Almost 9 Percent In August | Kris Ramotar, Lakeshore Windsor Essex Realtor

Windsor-Essex Home Sales Fell Almost 9 Percent This August, and the Bank of Canada Is Not the Reason Why

Fewer homes sold across Windsor-Essex County this August than in any August I can remember, down almost 9 percent from last year. And it happened the exact same week the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady. If rates are not the problem, something else is going on, and by the time you finish reading this, you will know exactly what that means for you and your family.

Here is the short version, in case you only have a minute. The Bank of Canada held its key rate steady for the seventh time in a row, so mortgage costs did not change either way this week. At the same time, home sales across Windsor-Essex County fell 8.55 percent this August compared to last year. The real reason is not the rate decision, it is new tariffs putting pressure on the auto and manufacturing jobs so much of this region depends on.

Let me get the headline out of the way first. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25 percent this week, the seventh time in a row they have kept it right where it is. That rate influences what banks charge you to borrow, and no change means no change to that cost either way. If you are on a variable rate or shopping for one, your rate stays put. No relief, but no increase either. Fixed rates follow the bond market, not this announcement, and a steady policy rate usually keeps fixed rates fairly calm too.

Here is what I actually want you paying attention to, because this is the part that affects you and your neighbours specifically. While the Bank of Canada was holding steady, our own market moved, and not in the direction sellers want to hear. According to the Windsor-Essex County Association of REALTORS, we had 428 homes sell in August, down 8.55 percent from 468 homes last August. New listings only dropped 3.34 percent, from 1,166 homes down to 1,127. Homes sold fell more than twice as fast as new listings did, which means your odds got noticeably tighter this year, whichever side of the transaction you are on. About 38 percent of homes listed actually sold in August this year. A year ago, it was closer to 40 percent.

But that is not even the biggest thing happening in our market right now. There is a bigger story sitting underneath that sales number, and it is the one most people covering the news are going to miss entirely. The Bank of Canada Governor specifically flagged new United States tariffs as a real risk, 50 percent on a range of Canadian goods in effect since August 22, with Canada's retaliatory tariffs starting September 8. That matters more here than almost anywhere else in the country, because Windsor-Essex County has one of the largest shares of jobs in Canada tied directly to manufacturing and the auto sector, an industry that runs on cross-border trade.

The Bank said they do not expect a big hit to the economy overall, but specific sectors could feel it hard, and that is exactly the sector we live in here. I will be honest with you, I think this could cause real hardship locally if the automotive sector takes the hit I suspect it might, in terms of jobs. I hope and I pray it does not hit our local economy and our local families the way I am worried it could. I know how hard it is to live with that kind of uncertainty. It is not fun for anyone.

Inflation ticked up to 3 percent in July, mostly oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East, and our economy actually grew faster than expected last quarter, at 3.3 percent. But underneath those national numbers sits real local uncertainty, and that uncertainty, more than any single rate decision, is what slows hiring and buyer confidence in a market like ours, long before the official numbers ever catch up to it.

Now let us talk price, because this part actually held up better than the sales numbers did. The average sale price came in around 563,000 dollars, essentially flat compared to 564,000 dollars last year. The median, which is the number that tells you what a typical family like yours actually paid, came in at 515,000 dollars, down from 525,000 dollars a year ago.

Here is a lesson from a recent closing that I think every seller in Lakeshore, Windsor, Tecumseh, LaSalle, Amherstburg, Kingsville, Leamington and across Essex County needs to hear, because it saved my client a lot of heartache and almost 2,000 dollars.

Not long ago I represented a family selling their home in Belle River. The transaction went smoothly right up until closing. The agent on the buyer's side had been professional and transparent the entire way through. Then, shortly after we closed, he called me. He told me he had made a mistake. His clients had taken it for granted that the washer and dryer would stay with the house, but it was never written into the Agreement of Purchase and Sale, and it was never listed on the MLS listing either, because my sellers had already planned to take it with them. If it is not in the contract, it does not get left behind, and he knew it.

A little while later I got a second call. His clients said they had noticed a leak coming from where the washer and dryer used to sit, and they wanted to know if my sellers would compensate them for it. I asked him to send me photos and video before I brought anything to my clients, and then I told him something important. My sellers had taken their own photos and video during their final walkthrough, the day they moved out, and there was no leak there when they left. I told him to have his lawyer contact my client's lawyer if they wanted to pursue it further.

I never heard back. That silence told me everything I needed to know.

If you are selling your home, this is the one habit I want you to walk away with today. When you do your final walkthrough, the day you hand over the keys, take photos and video of every room before you go. It only takes a few minutes, and it protects you completely if a buyer ever comes back with a claim after closing. I tell every one of my sellers to do this, because you would be surprised what some buyers, and even some buyer's agents, will try after the deal has closed. My sellers in Belle River are the reason I bring this up now, because their few minutes of caution saved them a real headache and a real dollar amount, and I am grateful they listened when I told them to do it.

A few questions come up constantly when I share updates like this one, so let me answer them directly. Did the Bank of Canada rate hold change mortgage rates in Windsor-Essex County. No, a hold means your rate stays exactly where it was, whether you are on a variable rate right now or locking in a fixed rate this month.

Is now a good time to sell a home in Windsor-Essex County. That depends entirely on your own situation, but fewer homes are selling right now than a year ago, so pricing and presentation matter more than they did last August.

How do the new tariffs affect the Windsor-Essex real estate market. They add uncertainty for local jobs tied to the auto and manufacturing sector, and that kind of uncertainty tends to slow buyer confidence long before it ever shows up in the official sales numbers.

Should you take photos during your final walkthrough when selling a home. Yes, every single time, because it is the easiest way to protect yourself if a buyer or their agent ever comes back with a claim after closing.

If you are thinking about selling, here is what I want you to take from all of this. Fewer homes selling while listings barely dropped means it is harder right now for your home to be the one that sells, compared to a year ago. Pricing your home based on what a similar home got last August is risky, because the median has come down about 10,000 dollars since then. Stable rates mean stable buyer demand, there is no sudden wave of new buyers coming because of this announcement, and no sudden drop off either. Pricing and condition still matter more than anything the Bank of Canada does on a given Wednesday.

If you are buying, there is real reason for encouragement here. Fewer homes selling means less competition for you, and you are less likely to be fighting several other buyers for the same house. The median coming down tells you sellers are being more realistic than they were a year ago. Borrowing costs are not getting cheaper right now, so affordability stays tight, but your rate is not about to spike on you either, which gives you a stable number to actually plan around.

This applies whether you are a first-time buyer trying to break into the market, a family upsizing because you have outgrown your current home, empty nesters downsizing into something more manageable, or a family relocating here from the GTA or somewhere else entirely. Every one of those situations benefits from fewer bidding wars and from sellers who are more willing to talk price than they were a year ago.

My goal has always been to give you the data and let you make an informed decision for your own family. I will never tell you that you must buy or must sell. Only you know your situation, your job stability, and your comfort level well enough to make that call. Some of you may have to sell soon, some may have to buy soon, but always run your numbers first, and make sure you feel confident about where you stand before you move.

I want to be upfront with you too. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here is financial advice. This is a plain language read on what is actually happening in our local market. For anything specific to your mortgage or your borrowing decision, that conversation belongs with your lender or a mortgage professional.

I have spent over 9 years watching these numbers move right here in Lakeshore, Windsor, Tecumseh, LaSalle, Amherstburg, Kingsville, Leamington, Essex County and Chatham, and I have called this community home for 23 years. I have helped more than 160 families make real decisions in markets that looked a lot like this one. If you are trying to figure out where you and your family fit into everything above, do not guess. Call or text me, and let us talk it through.

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